Only a tactical blunder, illness or injury can stop Tour de France favourite Tadej Pogacar, say experts

Tadej Pogacar is racing himself to win a record-equalling fifth Tour de France and further cement his legacy as one of cycling’s all-time greats. That’s the opinion of former Australian national road champion Dave Mackenzie and fellow longtime SBS broadcaster Matthew Keenan, who believe it would likely take an extraordinary tactical error, or illness, even for two-time Tour winner Jonas Vingegaard to topple the Slovenian champion in 2026. “The thing with Pog, he’s one of the best climbers, he’s one of the best descenders, he’s one of the best guys in the crosswinds, he’s got one of the best psychologies, probably in the world, and fitness wise, he’s one of the best,” said Mackenzie, who will mark 20 years of broadcasting the Tour on SBS with Keenan at this year’s race. “So, his worst trait, it’s still one of the best in the world. It’s going to take possibly himself to slip up and make an error, you know, whether he crashes on a corner, he gets sick, it’s going to take something I think really, really extraordinary, even for Jonas Vingegaard to get the better of him. “There is that element of pressure, he is going for number five, which equals the greats, but I don’t think Pogacar feels pressure. I think he’s so well-rounded as a person, and as an athlete, that now we’re witnessing one of the greatest sportspeople, not just cyclists.” Keenan added: “Any race he (Pogacar) starts, if he doesn’t win, the questions get asked, what went wrong? I just see him as the, as the outright favourite.” At just 27 years old, Pogacar has already compiled one of the sport’s great resumes, including five general classification wins at the Tour (2020, 2021, 2024 and 2025). In the two years he did not win, 2022 and 2023, he finished a close second to Vingegaard. A fifth win would draw him level with legends Jacques Anquetil (1957, 1961–64), Eddy Merckx (1969–72, 1974), Bernard Hinault (1978–79, 1981–82, 1985) and Miguel Indurain (1991–95), while he is fast moving up the standings for several other records, including stage wins (sixth with 21), and days wearing the race leader’s yellow jersey (fifth with 56). Outside of the Tour, Pogacar in 2024 became the first man this century and just the seventh ever to win the Giro d’Italia-Tour de France double in a calendar year. And at cycling’s five one-day monuments – Milan-San Remo, Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix, Leige-Bastogne-Leige and Giro di Lombardia – he already sits second for victories with 13, behind only Merckx (19). To start the 2026 season, Pogacar has won five of the six races he has entered and finished a close second at Paris-Roubix, the only monument missing from his collection. “He is comfortably the best I’ve seen in my time involved in cycling,” said Keenan, who has followed the sport closely since 1990. “He hasn’t won as many races as Eddy Merckx, and it’s hard to compare generations, but the sport is much more global now. (Pogacar) is competing against a bigger pool of athletes, and I think he is equal to Eddy Merckx, without having won as many races because of the level of the competition he’s faced.” The 2026 Tour starts on the streets of Barcelona on Saturday night (Perth time) with a team time trial and continues through Spain for the opening three stages before crossing into France. In total, the race will cover more than 3,320km over 21 days and feature two ascents to the top of the iconic Alpe d’Huez (stages 19 and 20), among other gruelling mountain climbs. Eleven Australians have been named to start across six teams, including past stage-winners Michael Matthews, Ben O’Connor and Jai Hindley, the latter of which recently finished third at the recent Giro d’Italia, but is likely pencilled in to ride the Tour as a domestique for podium fancy teammates Florian Lipowitz and Remco Evenepoel. Watch the Tour de France from 10.55pm this Saturday on SBS and SBS On Demand.