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A Six-Pack Of IPA (Interesting Points, Allegedly): West Coast Eagles’ wooden spoon equation & more

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Chris RobinsonThe West Australian
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Can Luke Shuey and the Eagles avoid the wooden spoon?
Camera IconCan Luke Shuey and the Eagles avoid the wooden spoon? Credit: Jackson Flindell/The West Australian

The wooden spoon equation

No need for the calculators to crunch percentage numbers on Saturday, Eagles fans: As long as North Melbourne lose to Gold Coast, West Coast are extremely unlikely to drop enough percentage to fall past the Kangaroos into bottom spot, even with a thumping in Geelong. The Eagles have to match the result of the 18th-placed Roos to avoid the wooden spoon, but the 4.7% gap between the two clubs represents upwards of a 21-goal difference between the two potential losing margins, based on realistic scores and depending on how high-scoring the matches are. In the below example of a narrow, high-scoring loss of 101-100 for North Melbourne, the Eagles would only have to avoid losing by 136 or more should they score 30 against the Cats.

Can the Eagles avoid the wooden spoon?
Camera IconCan the Eagles avoid the wooden spoon? Credit: AFL Photos

Might as well jump

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Can Fremantle sneak into the top four? The sixth-placed Dockers will be looking to become just the third team in AFL/VFL history to secure a top-four place by jumping up from that far back in the last round of the home-and-away season. Ross Lyon’s St Kilda climbed from seventh to fourth on the final weekend of the 2008 campaign, with Sydney (sixth to fourth in 2003) the only other team to make a last-minute move from sixth or lower. Remarkably, the Dockers haven’t moved up the ladder in the final round of any season since 2003, when a fourth-quarter Justin Longmuir goal helped them win a thrilling western derby to rocket from eighth to fifth.

Can the Dockers jump multiple ladder in spots in the last round, just like Justin Longmuir’s side did in 2003?
Camera IconCan the Dockers jump multiple ladder in spots in the last round, just like Justin Longmuir’s side did in 2003? Credit: GSP Images/AFL Photos/GSP
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Standing tall

Sean Darcy was a deserved Glendinning-Allan Medal winner after producing numbers we’ve never seen before against one of the best ruckmen of the past decade. Darcy amassed 56 hit-outs, representing the most-ever by any player against a Nic Naitanui-led side – and smashing the previous mark against Nic Nat of 47 by Todd Goldstein in 2015. In the 41 contests where Darcy and Naitanui were directly opposed, Darcy dominated hit-outs 27-8, hit-outs to advantage 7-4, and set up a 20-13 clearance advantage for his team.

Sean Darcy was too strong for Nic Naitanui in their ruck battle.
Camera IconSean Darcy was too strong for Nic Naitanui in their ruck battle. Credit: Jackson Flindell/The West Australian

Derby domination

David Mundy was typically prolific in his 31st and final western derby appearance, racking up 25 disposals and eight clearances – his equal-most in a derby win. Mundy also became just the seventh player in the AFL era to notch more than 700 touches against a single opponent, finishing his career with 701 disposals against the Eagles at almost 23 per game. The only other players to have racked up as much of the ball against another club are Scott Pendlebury against Essendon (817), Joel Selwood against Hawthorn (797), Sam Mitchell against Geelong (785), Gary Ablett Jr against Hawthorn (777), Robert Harvey against the Bulldogs (729) and Scott West against Adelaide (718).

Going streaking

Winning a western derby gives your team bragging rights for months, but across the past decade-and-a-half, those bragging rights have been extended out into much longer patches. The Dockers have now won three straight cross-town clashes, establishing their own winning streak straight off the back of West Coast’s 11 straight victories. Before that was a string of six consecutive Freo wins, three straight Eagles wins, and seven Freo wins in a row. The first derby of 2007 was the most recent one that didn’t turn into – or wasn’t a part of – a string of three or more consecutive results.

Minor predicament

Max Gawn’s winner in the last round of last season.
Camera IconMax Gawn’s winner in the last round of last season. Credit: Daniel Pockett/via AFL Photos

Can Geelong break a minor – or major – recent AFL trend? Over the past eight seasons, the team sitting on top of the ladder when the final siren rang on their home-and-away campaign has failed to go on and win that year’s premiership in the weeks that followed. That includes the Cats of last year, who held the lead and top spot when the final siren sounded in their round 23 clash with Melbourne – only to be knocked off top position by Max Gawn’s after-the-siren winner.

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