ELLEN RANSLEY: Ghost of elections past weighs heavily on final, frenetic campaign day for Albo, Dutton

The adage of “the only poll that counts is election day” often elicits a few groans and eye rolls, but the ghost of 2019 looms large over both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton as they sprint towards the finish line.

In their final 36 hours of frenetic campaigning before polls close, the two men are criss-crossing their countries, blitzing key seats in their last chance to sell their respective pitches to the millions of Australians who’ve not yet voted.

The Prime Minister goes into Saturday ahead in the polls — and could even get a swing towards him — but neither he or the Opposition Leader believe Saturday’s results are guaranteed. Both are alive to the potential of a Scott Morrison-esque “miracle” going Mr Dutton’s way.

The 2019 election has become a cautionary tale against putting the cart ahead of the horse — or the bookies paying out before polls close.

Mr Dutton is hopeful the “quiet, angry Australians” who delivered Morrison to the Lodge come through for him, and make their disappointment and frustration at Labor felt when they head into the ballot box.

“I think there’ll be some big surprises on election night,” he said on Friday morning.

“I think we’re in for the fight of our lives, because if you look at the seat-by-seat analysis, there’s no doubt in my mind that we can win this election

“That’s exactly what happened in 2019 when quiet Australians went into the polling booth and said ‘I’m not going to reward the PM for the previous three years’. I think Australians are in that frame of mind.”

The “folly” of Labor taking victory for granted six years ago has weighed heavily on the PM’s mind, too.

On the offensive in the Brisbane LNP seats of Longman and Dutton’s Dickson on Friday morning, Mr Albanese acknowledged he had a “mountain to climb”.

Just as Mr Dutton is hopeful for a 2019-style shock, Mr Albanese is hoping it doesn’t eventuate — but knows it’s a potential.

He has cautioned against “complacency” and says Labor will be fighting right up until polls close.

Asked whether he was worried the polls could be wrong, the Prime Minister said he “certainly take(s) nothing for granted”.

“I think 2019 shows the folly of pretending that you know the outcome of an election before the ballots are counted,” he said.

The latest Newspoll, released on Monday, shows Labor with 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

In 2019, the last Newspoll before election day showed Labor leading the Coalition 51 to 49.

By the time all the votes were counted, it was the Coalition with 51.5 to Labor’s 48.5. Mr Morrison claimed a one-seat majority.

This time around, experts say something would have to be “really wrong” with the methodology of numerous polls for Labor to not retain power — whether in a slight minority or holding on with majority.

In 2019, the problem was that all the polls were saying the same thing — and they were all wrong. A Statistical Society of Australia review in 2020 found that the polls had erred “statistically significant(ly)”, and in the same direction at a similar level. No poll wanted to be different to Newspoll, and changed their methodology to follow the lead.

The report also found the source of errors lay in the polls themselves, not a last-minute change in voter preferences.

Psephologist Kevin Bonham told The Nightly different pollsters now use different methods. He says the outcome could reasonably be anything from Labor falling into minority by a few, to something more lopsided.

While not completely ruling out the potential of a 2019-style upset, the Dutton Opposition is different to the Bill Shorten Labor Opposition from six years ago. Soft voters then were turned off by Labor’s big-target agenda, making it easy to attack in the final weeks of the campaign.

It’s hard to argue Dutton’s Opposition has that same problem, and their steady decline in 2PP terms across all the polls for several weeks suggests a Morrison miracle isn’t likely.

But that’s still not a guarantee. The large soft vote, the high numbers of undecided voters, and the inevitable trickle down preference flows from independents and third parties all add a level of unpredictability.

It’s making Labor very nervous. The PM spent Friday on a three-state blitz, equal parts sandbagging and playing offense, while the Coalition remains cautiously hopeful as Mr Dutton on Friday criss-crossed the country.