analysis
Federal election 2022: Seat of Swan too close to call with Zaneta Mascarenhas, Kristy McSweeney neck and neck

It’s neck and neck between Labor and Liberal according to citizens in the seat of Swan, with less than a month to go before locals will have to lock in their final decision. In saying that, if you could win elections based solely on election sweeteners, media appearances and a bigger Facebook following — the inner-city, well-established constituency which has been in Liberal’s hands since 2007 would likely turn from blue to red on May 21. Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas and Liberal contender Kristy McSweeney are both under a mountain of pressure to take out the seat — which has a narrow margin of 3.2 per cent, up from 2.7 before last year’s Liberal-favoured boundary redistribution. Not that any of the two dozen people interviewed by The Sunday Times during a street poll this month were able to fully name either party’s Swan candidate when shown images of the pair. And in what people may describe as either a disengaged electorate or an inactive Federal member, only one person could name incumbent Liberal MP Steve Irons — who was referred to by one young voter as “that old dude ... he’s retiring” — after 15 years of service. However, people recalled seeing the new candidates on billboards and social media, meaning the close to $20,000 spent by the Liberal Party on Facebook ads — several thousand more than Labor — might be paying off. Ms Mascarenhas, an engineer who will be placed four slots higher than former journalist and Coalition media adviser Ms McSweeney on the voting ballot, also has a Facebook following of 4600 people, four times that of her main opponent. Although, Labor started pumping money into Facebook ads three months ahead of the Liberal Party. And having trekked through many Swan suburbs, Ms McSweeney’s billboards are also significantly more prominent. But Labor still appears hungrier to win the seat, promising more widespread election sweeteners than the Coalition — at least in the early running. Labor has so far pledged $58.2 million towards five major community projects in Swan under an Albanese government. That includes $30 million to build the High Wycombe community hub and $5.4 million to develop Hartfield Park in Forrestfield — both of which had Liberal-leaning voter bases and were in the seat of Hasluck in the last Federal election. Whereas the Liberals only have an election commitment of $7.3 million for Maniana Park in Queens Park — outbidding Labor on the project by about $2 million. The Coalition also had Budget commitments of $50 million for a business and research mineral partnership at Curtin University — in a Labor-leaning area — and $390,000 for Harold Rossiter Park in Kensington — which will go ahead regardless of the election result. Ms McSweeney has also pushed more online petitions on Facebook — which has raised data-harvesting concerns. But Canberra politicians have said she has been fighting hard for the electorate and in a visit to Perth, Senator Jane Hume said: “We hear from her an awful lot in Canberra, with her very significant long-as-your-elbow list of things that she would like to deliver for the people of Swan”. Of people questioned by The Sunday Times in the heart of Swan — which encompasses the industrial areas surrounding Perth Airport, Kewdale and Welshpool, students at Curtin University and families in suburbs like South Perth, Victoria Park and Cannington - it was about a 55-45 split favouring Labor in the two-party preferred vote. The primary vote had Labor in front, something also reflected in Utting Research polling from last month where 46 per cent of people said they would vote Labor and 32 per cent would vote Liberal. COVID-19 appeared to be an issue of the past for many voters, who instead wanted a strong economy, reduction in cost-of-living and action on climate change. The demographics fell into age-old stereotypes with business owners and retirees convinced Scott Morrison would best serve them and uphold the country’s economy and values. Young people seemed to be more focused on cost-of-living, affordable housing, climate change and the treatment of women and LGBTQIA+ individuals — something the Prime Minister has come under fire over during his time in office. Ms McSweeney has also recently raised eyebrows for saying she knows how to point out “who’s a woman and who’s a man”, but also acknowledged there were people who identified as “other (who) are in a minority” and “we should recognise and respect minorities”. Ms Mascarenhas has said her main issues are cost-of-living and climate change, while Ms McSweeney said people had told her they were focussed on a strong economy and reducing crime. People knew who they wanted to be the next prime minister — even if they felt like their choice came down to selecting the lesser of two evils. Semi-retired engineer Alistair Campbell said he hoped Labor would get over the line. When asked who he believed would make a better PM, he said: “Albanese I suppose, he’s not great, but he’ll do”. IT consultant Sheydn Rose, a 29-year-old who will most likely vote for the Greens, said she preferred “Albo ... he’s better than ScoMo on everything” because “Scott Morrison is an absolute idiot … and that’s being offensive to idiots”. And 25-year-old Liam Criddle-White said both options were “as bad as each other”. The construction worker said he would probably be voting Liberal “as much as I don’t want to”. “I learn more about it from my misses, she follows it a lot more than me ... I know they’re both bad, but ScoMo’s the better one,” he said. Curtin University student India Walker said she would likely be voting Labor because “they seem to be more for the people”. “I don’t really like ScoMo ... he seems pretty misogynistic at the moment and if you have someone like that leading the country, it’s kind of crap,” the 21-year-old said. “I know he’s not very environmentally forward ... and he’s trying to pass through a lot of stuff that’s not very queer friendly.” Meanwhile, much like barracking for his favourite football team, 71-year-old South Perth business owner Greg Williamson said he would be voting Liberal again this year. Although, he said he met Labor’s Tanya Plibersek recently and admitted telling her: “I’ve never voted Labor all my life, but I might change my mind”. Others were concerned having Labor in Federal Parliament would further hurt democracy after Labor trampled the Liberal Party in last year’s State election. The polling was so dire the Liberals lost the official Opposition status which went to the Nationals. Retired teacher Sandra Levis said she was still concerned about the power West Aussies gave Labor at the last election. “We cannot afford to have a dictatorship in the State, which is what we elected, and the same party elected at the Federal election,” she said. “You have to have a balance, and if it was reversed, if it was a Liberal majority with no Opposition, I would say the same thing.” Cannington couple Trisha Panikoula and Izee Sekodel said their values aligned with Labor. “My family’s always been Labor, dad’s always been union-based, I’m a public school teacher so Labor’s policy is probably most in line with supporting education,” Ms Panikoula said. She said she was also proud to support a “woman of colour”. East Victoria Park mother Abby Smith said she was still undecided, but her father, a Liberal man, had been quite influencing. “I’m still looking into it, it’s hard with family influences,” Ms Smith said. She said she did not rent, but many of her friends had been worried about housing ahead of the election. And mother-of-four Rachel Taylor said she needed to research more, but would not rule out voting independents again. “I like to research a little bit beforehand and I haven’t had a chance to do that yet ... I don’t really pay much attention to it, we just live our life, we’re happy that we live in a nice country,” Ms Taylor said. Interestingly, nobody interviewed appeared to be a swing voter after being asked who they voted for in the last election. And in a reflection of the area’s multiculturalism, half a dozen people interviewed said they were not able to vote because they were not Australian citizens. While others admitted they were not enrolled to vote at all. Others despised the major parties so much they vowed to vote for an independent candidate. The Greens — which is running Noongar man Clint Uink — and the United Australia Party with candidate Paul Hiton were the only minor parties mentioned by voters on the street. The ALP has held the seat 11 times since 1972, seven of which it formed government and the Liberal Party has won eight times, six of which it was in power.

analysisFederal election 2022: Seat of Swan too close to call with Zaneta Mascarenhas, Kristy McSweeney neck and neck

analysis
Federal election 2022: Seat of Swan too close to call with Zaneta Mascarenhas, Kristy McSweeney neck and neck