Michelle Grattan: Albanese has important meeting with Trump ahead of him for the future of Australian trade

Australia these days receives invitations to big league international conferences. And so Anthony Albanese will be off soon to the G7 meeting in Alberta, Canada, on June 15-17.

For the Prime Minister, what’s most important about this trip is not so much the conference itself, but his expected first meeting with US President Donald Trump, either on the sidelines of the G7 or in a visit to Washington while he’s in North America.

During the election, there was much argument over whether Albanese or Peter Dutton would be better at dealing with the difficult and unpredictable Trump, in particular, in trying to extract some concessions on his tariffs.

Australia has been hit by Trump’s 25 per cent tariff on aluminium and steel, as well as by his general 10 per cent tariff.

The Trump tariff regime has been a chaotic story of decisions, pauses and changes of mind. In the latest drama, the US Court of International Trade on Wednesday blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs (as far as Australia goes, this relates to the 10 per cent general tariff but not that on aluminium and steel). The court found the President had exceeded his powers. The administration immediately appealed, and that resulted in a pause on the earlier decision. The crisis seems headed for the Supreme Court.

We can’t know how this imbroglio will play out. But given Australia will still be confronting some tariffs, Albanese’s pitch for special treatment will be made around what we can do for the Americans with our large deposits of critical minerals and rare earths.

Australia’s Ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd said this week what needed to be worked out was “how do we collaborate . . . on the mining, the extraction, the transportation and the processing and the stockpiling to make our economies resilient”.

When Albanese does get together with Trump, he will have the advantage of meeting him as the big election winner. Trump said of him post-election, “He’s been very, very nice to me, very respectful to me”.

But that’s no iron-clad guarantee of success. With the US President, there are always multiple “known unknowns”.

A range of other issues will also be on the agenda, including progress on AUKUS.

The President would no doubt be pleased the Government is in the process of booting the Chinese lessee out of the Port of Darwin (with American investment firm Cerberus expressing an interest in taking over, although the Government’s preference is for the port to be in Australian hands).

Trump might not think, however, that the Government’s commitment to defence spending, due to reach 2.3 per cent of gross domestic product by 2033-34, is enough. The Americans would prefer a level of 3 per cent of GDP.

No doubt the Middle East would also be canvassed in such talks. While Middle East policy is not a front line issue in the Australian-American relationship, the Albanese Government struggles at home to strike the right stance.

Since the Hamas attack on Israel, Australia has seen a deterioration in local social cohesion. Anti-Semitism spiked alarmingly; pro-Palestinian demonstrations became a regular and controversial feature. The Government found itself under political fire from the Jewish community and pro-Palestinian critics alike.

With the Israeli Government disregarding international criticism, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza growing more dire, Albanese this week toughened his rhetoric.

On Monday he said: “It is outrageous that there be a blockade of food and supplies to people who are in need in Gaza. We have made that very clear by signing up to international statements”. He described Israel’s actions as “completely unacceptable”.

Within Labor, the pressure to go further has been mounting. It is on two fronts. Some want sanctions against Israel (beyond the existing sanctions in relation to settlers on the West Bank). There is also the issue of whether Australia should recognise a Palestinian state ahead of a two-state solution.

Ed Husic, a Muslim, was relatively outspoken even while he was in cabinet. Since being dumped from the ministry, he is much freer to put forth his view.

This week, he was calling for imposing sanctions if other nations were to do so.

Significantly, former Labor foreign minister Gareth Evans was another advocate, saying sanctions “would send a powerful message”.

But when the question of sanctions was put to Albanese, he was dismissive, raising the issue of substantive outcomes.

At the Labor Party’s grassroots level, there is strong pressure for a more pro-Palestinian approach.

It is not unreasonable to think that would strike a sympathetic chord with both Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong, but they are very cognisant of the politics — both international and local.

Wong a year ago raised the possibility of recognising Palestine statehood as a step along a peace process, ahead of a two-state solution.

Australia’s Ambassador to the United Nations, James Larson, last week delivered an Australian statement to a preparatory meeting for a June conference in New York on “the question of Palestine and the implementation of the two-state solution”.

Echoing Wong’s earlier position, he said: “Like other partners, Australia no longer sees recognition of a Palestinian state as only occurring at the end of negotiations, but rather as a way of building momentum towards a two-state solution.”

Evans, in an article for Pearls and Irritations this week, says the “strongest and most constructive contribution” Australia could make on the issue would be to announce at the conference “that we are immediately recognising Palestinian statehood”.

The Government is tight-lipped about what stand it will take for the June 17-20 conference. It says it is not being framed as a conference where countries are expected to make pledges.

Nevertheless, many within Labor will be watching closely whether the coming weeks will see any change in Australia’s Middle East policy. But that, in turn, would depend on whether others make any moves, because Australia wants to have company from like-minded countries.