While Labor, the Coalition and One Nation were all sharpening their policy knives in April looking for ways to slash Australia’s migration intake, a couple of major data sets emerged that revealed the changing face of the nation they were all trying to reshape.
First, the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that India had overtaken England for the first time as the top overseas country of birth for Australian residents.
The Indian-born population had hit 971,000 and was heading quickly towards one million.
That was 1,000 people more than those born in England and about 140,000 more than the third-placed country, China (732,000).
The complexion of the Australian character had reached a significant turning point.
For the first time since the British convict ships hit these shores in 1788, the evolution of our national identity was being influenced more by New Delhi than the Old Dart.
Then, a second data set emerged revealing the aspirational nature of these “new Australians” from the subcontinent.
“Singh” has overtaken “Smith” as the most common surname on the national register of new companies.
Members of the burgeoning Indian diaspora are taking to their new home with great entrepreneurial verve, opening a multitude of businesses in food, hospitality and web-based services.
Instead of competing for jobs they believe are below their qualifications, many are deciding to create their own.
The pathways they are using to become Australian residents is also instructive in the context of our current national debate over migration.
Most come as students.
There are about 130,000 Indians at Australian universities. About another 80,000 are on graduate visas, of whom around one-third are dependent family members.
More than 50 percent of Indians who enter Australia as students become residents within seven years, compared with an average of 30 percent for all international students.
The most common pathway is by transitioning from student visas to graduate visas, which allow them to build the requisite work experience to apply for employer-sponsored residency or through the skills stream.
The migration reforms being proposed by Labor, the Coalition and One Nation would all build barriers to this traditional route for our new number one source of foreign-born Australians.
Labor will effectively bar dependent family members entering on temporary graduate visas and curb the practice of “visa-hopping” that has allowed students to change courses and providers to prolong their stay and give them a better chance of securing residency.
One Nation’s policy would severely restrict the Indian student pathway to residency by almost halving the international student cap, banning all family visas tied to students and cutting graduate visas from 270,000 to 40,000.
But the alternative policy the Coalition released this week would have the biggest impact.
It would deny temporary or bridging visas to almost all international students, forcing them to leave the country once they have completed their studies and apply for work visas from overseas.
Migration experts say that change would decimate the number of Indians becoming Australian residents through the education system.
Indian students are much less likely to seek work here through the skilled pathways if they are forced back to India to make their applications.
And, experts say, many would simply choose not to come here in the first place. They would instead study in another country where the pathways to residency are simpler.
Then there is the rather large matter of Australia’s free trade deal with India, signed by the Morrison Coalition Government.
It provides undertakings for Indian students to remain in Australia for between two and four years after completing their studies - undertakings the present Coalition’s policy would breach.
And there is another statistic that all the political parties should keep in mind as they sell their competing prescriptions for cutting Australia’s migrant intake.
Almost half the Indian diaspora - about half a million people - vote.
It would be simplistic to suggest that this cohort would all vote as one.
But it does illuminate the level of electoral risk the parties face as they argue their respective policies.
Each, though, will have the same general effect to different degrees.
The Australian character, for so long shaped by the example of the Old Dart, will become proportionately less influenced by New Delhi in the future.
Mark Riley is the Seven Network’s political editor
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