In a more fragile world, there are two avenues to economic and national security.
Either you sever your reliance on the global system of trade, or ensure you are indispensable to it.
If Australia is to prosper in the decades ahead, the second is our only realistic option. We must embed ourselves deeply and widely in the critical supply chains other nations rely on. Our goal should not be independence but indispensability.
The global environment has shifted. US hegemony has ended and the world is fragmenting into blocs. Countries are moving to secure energy, food and industrial inputs closer to home or from partners they trust.
Australia sits in an uncomfortable position. Our security is tied to the United States, but we operate in a region where China is increasingly projecting its power in our direction.
We are not in North America or Europe. We are in Asia. In a more contested environment, we cannot assume others will carry our interests for us. We need to stand on our own feet and ensure we are a country others want and need to deal with.
That comes back to what we produce.
Energy and resources are not just exports. Gas, iron ore, gold, alumina and critical minerals are building blocks of modern life and bargaining chips in the game of nations.
Countries that can supply them reliably, at scale and over long periods, are central to how the global economy functions. That is where Australia has a clear advantage, but it is not something we can take for granted.
Recent conflict in the Middle East and Europe has reinforced the point. Modern wars are highly resource intensive. They draw down stockpiles of materials and expose supply chain vulnerabilities. It is not just about energy, fuel and steel.
Critical minerals such as antimony, niobium and rare earth elements sit inside weapons systems, communications equipment and advanced manufacturing.
They are used in small quantities, but they are essential. As inventories are run down and supply chains are tested, demand for these materials will increase and countries will place greater weight on securing reliable sources.
We are not in North America or Europe. We are in Asia. In a more contested environment, we cannot assume others will carry our interests for us. We need to stand on our own feet and ensure we are a country others want and need to deal with.
The risk is we misread the moment.
The domestic debate on energy has hardened into a false choice.
On one side, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sparked a push to move as quickly as possible away from hydrocarbons towards — renewables.
On the other, a push to double down on them.
The reality is that both sides of the debate are right.
Consumers will adopt electric vehicles and electrified technologies at a faster rate. That will drive demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt and a range of other minerals that Australia can supply. That is a clear opportunity and one we should pursue.
At the same time, large parts of the global economy will remain dependent on hydrocarbons for decades to come. Heavy industry, freight, aviation, chemicals and mining require dense, reliable energy.
That is not changing in the near term.
Gas in particular will remain central, both as a fuel and as a feedstock.
That is another opportunity Australia should embrace. Australian LNG exports were integral to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s — ability to secure commitments from our Asian neighbours to continue supplying diesel and petrol in the early days of the conflict in the Persian Gulf.
As that war drags on, our gas will only become more important.
For Australia, the implication is we should be developing our full suite of energy and resource assets in a way that strengthens our position in global supply chains and supports our own resilience.
That is why union-instigated disruption in the Pilbara is so concerning. At a time when investors are willing to pay a premium for reliability, ours is being undermined.
Beyond a workplace system predicated on co-operation rather than conflict, we require policy settings that allow projects to proceed.
Approvals processes need to be rigorous, but they also need to be timely and predictable. Taxation settings need to be competitive and stable over long time horizons. If we get these settings wrong, the consequence is not just fewer projects, fewer jobs and a shrinking revenue base. It is a loss of relevance.
Australia has the resource endowment, the capability and the institutional strength to be a reliable supplier in a more contested world. That position brings economic benefits, but it also brings strategic weight. In a more contested world, Australia will either make itself indispensable — or discover what it means not to be.
Aaron Morey is Chief Executive Officer of the Chamber of Minerals and Energy of WA
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