Liberals at risk of losing South Australian marginal seat of Sturt: Exit poll

The Liberal Party is at risk of losing the blue-ribbon South Australian electorate of Sturt, early exclusive exit polling has revealed.

Liberal incumbent James Stevens secured 37.8 per cent of the primary vote in the poll conducted by NewsWire, which asked 193 voters across three booths how they marked their first preference vote.

Labor challenger Claire Clutterham nabbed 71 votes, or 36.8 per cent of the vote, and Greens candidate Katie McCusker secured 30 votes, or 15.5 per cent.

Independent candidate Verity Cooper scored 12 votes, or 6.2 per cent of the vote, One Nation contender Peter Bogatec secured five votes, or 2.6 per cent of the vote and Family First candidate Joshua Mervin won two votes, or 1 per cent of the vote.

Mr Stevens’ first preference vote share in the poll marks a five-point fall from his 2022 performance, where he secured 43.1 per cent of primary votes.

His Labor challenger in 2022 secured 30.7 per cent of first preferences.

Exit Poll Sturt May 3 2025

Mr Stevens holds Sturt with a tight 0.5 per cent margin, and if there is a fall in his first preference vote share on election night, he could lose the seat to Labor.

The Liberals have held the seat, which covers Adelaide’s eastern suburbs to the Adelaide Hills, since 1972, and it was previously held by former Coalition defence minister Christopher Pyne.

The sample size of the exit poll, however, is small, and the poll took in just three booths: The Glynde Lutheran Church, Campbelltown Uniting Church and the Kensington RSL.

The poll also assumes voters told the truth when responding to how they marked their ballot paper.

And Australia’s preferential system of voting means a poll of first preferences only offers an indication of the possible final outcome.

Francis Ajo, speaking with NewsWire at the Campbelltown Uniting Church booth, said he shifted his vote from Liberal to Labor.

“I used to be a Liberal but I’ve changed for this election,” Mr Ajo said.

“Labor has been very consistent in their messaging and their campaign, about what they would like to do.

“Whereas the Liberals, every week seems to be a different policy.

“Their policies have to be more consistent. Not just jump from one to another,” he said.

Former foreign minister Alexander Downer, speaking with NewsWire at the Kensington RSL booth, said the election had failed to “excite the imagination” of the Australian public.

“The parties are offering them benefits on borrowed money, but they are not talking a lot about how they are going to stop prices rising,” Mr Downer said.

Former foreign minister and Liberal titan Alexander Downer spoke with NewsWire about the 2025 election at the Kensington RSL booth in the seat of Sturt on Saturday.

“I think in every political contest. It should be a contest of ideas. And this election, it hasn’t really come across as much more than a managerial debate, manage the place better than you do.Nothing much has happened that has inspired the public.”

All major opinion polls point to the return of a minority or majority Labor government.

Mr Downer expressed confidence the Liberal Party could rebuild, even if it suffered a defeat on Saturday night.

“They were in power for nine years, then they lost in 2022. It’s only three years on.

“It’s improbable they would win back in just three years on, and the fact that people are talking about it is a bit of an indictment of the current government.

Father and daughter Jeremy and Hannah Moore voted at the Kensington RSL booth.

Mr Moore voted Labor while Ms Moore voted Greens.

“There is a connection between the Greens and Labor,” Mr Moore said.

“Labor needs the Greens and the Greens need Labor.”

Ms Moore said she voted for the Greens because they were more “progressive” than Labor.

“They’re focused on serious climate action, they are more community focused,” she said.

She said Palestine was also an important factor in her vote for the Greens.

Irene Tolios voted for the Liberals at the Glynde Lutheran Church and said she had done so looking for the closest major party to One Nation and Clive Palmer.

“I want the closest to that opinion,” she said.

Housing was a central issue for her, she said, and expressed alarm on the impact of immigration on available housing stock.

“I’ve just come from the rental market and it’s very tough,” she said.