Australia at climate crossroads as old fuel path tapers

Imagine water pooling on the bathroom tiles and starting to mop while the tap is still running.

It's an apt analogy for the world's climate change response over the past three decades, according to Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative president Kumi Naidoo.

"Eighty six per cent of what drives climate change is fossil fuels," says the former head of Greenpeace and Amnesty International.

The South African human rights and environmental activist has penned an essay on Australia's opportunity to lead the transition away from non-renewables and secure a future for its Pacific neighbours.

In Mr Naidoo's view, the failure to mention fossil fuels in the outcomes of November's UN climate talks in Brazil is emblematic of a foundering global climate response due to the heavy presence of oil, gas and coal interests.

Yet he still walked away from the 30th Conference of the Parties summit in the Amazonian city of Belem feeling cautiously optimistic.

Dozens of countries were agitating on the issue of fossil fuel on the sidelines, he told AAP.

COP30 president Andre Correa do Lago has since promised to deliver a plan for a just transition away from the polluting fuels ahead of the next conference in Turkey.

The Belem Declaration, formulated to sit outside the main COP30 deal, has been endorsed by 80 countries - including major coal and gas producer Australia - and allows states to signal support for a fossil fuel roadmap.

Momentum is now building behind an inaugural international conference on fossil fuel phase-out to be held in Columbia in April.

Mr Naidoo is encouraging Australia to attend, particularly given its negotiating role at the next round of international climate talks.

After a protracted stand-off with Turkey on the 31st COP summit, Australia finally ceded hosting rights on the proviso the Pacific could run a pre-summit leaders' event and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen could lead negotiations.

Under this arrangement, Mr Naidoo said it would be "completely unacceptable" were Australia not in attendance at the Columbia summit as a "positive and constructive player".

"We can only pray and hope the Australian government will move beyond rhetorically embracing the urgency of climate change and start recognising it's very neighbours on the doorstep are facing already massive climate impacts, as is Australia," he said.While Australian electricity generation from renewable sources in September surpassed coal for the first time, government revenues are still heavily reliant on exports of fossil fuels, including liquefied natural gas.

In the essay titled What We Owe the Water: It's time for a Fossil Fuel Treaty, Mr Naidoo said the Paris agreement - the primary global climate pact - was an important foundational arrangement but would struggle to limit dangerous warming.

"We are not saying the climate Paris agreement should be thrown aside," he said.

"What we are saying is it needs a complimentary component which is much more binding, and where countries commit to a phase out."

Nodding to the challenged political environment, including the US government's disregard for climate action, Mr Naidoo was not expecting full international support for a fossil fuel phase-out treaty immediately.

But he was hopeful hold-outs would come under pressure were such a proposed treaty put to a vote.

Mr Naidoo drew on negotiations for a landmine treaty developed in the late 1990s that, when brought to the UN General Assembly, was "very difficult" to vote against.

"It was very hard for people to say, 'oh, I want landmines, I'm not prepared to ban it', right?"

Reflecting on the climate movement, Mr Naidoo said campaigners had made a tactical error by framing the threat as an environmental issue.

"What we needed to do was to humanise climate."

Mr Naidoo's article was published by Australia Institute Press.