Fate of Greens’ leader Adam Bandt may come down to a single change made before a single vote was cast

Adam Bandt is fighting for his political life. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Greens leader is predicted to lose the prized seat of Melbourne — one he has held since 2010 and was expected to hold for the foreseeable future. With 20.62 per cent of the vote counted, ALP candidate Sarah Witty currently leads Bandt 54 to 46 on a two-party preferred basis. And while national attention fixates on tight contests and leadership speculation, the fate of the Greens’ most high-profile figure may come down to a single change made well before a vote was cast. The redistribution of electoral boundaries in Victoria may have delivered one of the most consequential blows to the federal Greens in decades. It is also very likely it has contributed to party leader Adam Bandt struggling to hold on to his seat. The Australian Electoral Commission’s redrawing of the Melbourne electorate has shifted the political ground beneath Bandt’s feet, and early results suggest it may have been enough to tip the balance. Greens Leader Adam Bandt is at risk of losing his seat in Parliament to a Labor MP. Under the boundary changes introduced in 2024, the Division of Melbourne lost several suburbs in the inner north — which are traditional strongholds for the Greens — and absorbed parts of South Yarra and Prahran — areas where the Liberal vote is much higher. The party’s primary vote has dipped across the board, but in Melbourne, the impact has been amplified by the structural disadvantage created by the redistribution. This redrawing itself wasn’t politically motivated; redistributions are a routine and independent process designed to ensure equal representation as populations change. But that doesn’t dampen their consequences come election time. In Bandt’s case, the result has been a thinner margin and a seat that is suddenly far more competitive. Compounding the issue are results in other key Queensland seats. In Griffith and Brisbane, the Greens were knocked out of the final count in three-way contests where Labor gained ground and ended up in the last round against the LNP. Strong preference flows carried Labor to victory in both. With the Greens’ vote slipping nationally and locally, and without the cushion of their former inner-north base, Bandt faces a genuine fight to retain the seat he’s held since 2010. The Greens’ overall strategy of targeting inner-city voters disillusioned with the major parties remains sound. But the redistribution in Melbourne has left little room for error. Earlier today, electoral analyst Ben Raue was positive for Bandt. “Bandt has had a swing against him. There’s no denying that. It’s definitely happening,” he said. “I think that probably reflects Labor’s resurgence and people want to vote for the government. “And, you know, it’s a very progressive area. And so there are probably people who like the Greens, but also want to have a Labor government, and that influences how they vote.” Another election analyst, Kevin Bonham, has projected a potential win for Sarah Witty by less than one per cent, citing “very bad preference flows” in several recently counted booths. Bonham earlier told the Guardian that Bandt’s hold on the seat was “shaky”. Wong snaps at Bandt Criticism is now raining down on Australia’s headline progressive party. Going into the election with four seats, the Greens suffered a significant blow by losing two of them in Queensland, Griffith and Brisbane. Counting is also still underway in Ryan, where MP Elizabeth Watson-Brown is fighting to cling on to her seat, with just a few votes between her and Liberal candidate Maggie Forrest. Speaking to Karl Stefanovic on Today, the Foreign Affairs Minister said the election results may be a sign that the Australian people “rejected the politics of conflict and … grievance”. With a core focus on the housing crisis, climate change and the Israel-Hamas conflict, Senator Wong argued that some of the Greens’ messaging may not have resonated with the general public and the party became sucked into culture-war politics. She then struck a stark comparison between the Greens leader and the Coalition’s former leader. “Unfortunately, Adam Bandt, you know, in some ways is quite like Peter Dutton,” she said. “It’s the same conflict. It’s the same … frankly, sometimes quite aggressive and the same politics of protest and grievance. In the wake of the election result, Senator Wong argued that Mr Bandt should regroup and reflect on the party’s messaging and how it impacted the Australian people. “My suggestion to Adam Bandt is perhaps he should consider what the message (that) Australians sent to all of us in parliament,” she said. When the Today host asked if Senator Wong had made a “mistake” with comments about reviving the Voice during the election campaign, she skirted the topic and doubled-down on the country’s rejection of “culture-war politics”. “People were concerned about Medicare. People were concerned about cost of living. People were concerned about tax cuts. People were concerned about schools and hospitals and bulk-billing and fee-free TAFE,” she said. “That’s what Australians wanted to see. “They weren’t interested in the Peter Dutton Liberal Party culture wars.”