WA livestock industry buoyed by NZ flock decline, as prices are set to rise

WA sheep farmers could see the greatest benefit nationally from New Zealand flock decline thanks to basic laws of supply and demand.

Flock numbers have continued to decrease in WA, largely in part to a significant reduction in consumer confidence fuelled by the ban on live exports. But industry believes the reduced numbers will only drive up prices for WA lamb.

Given the reductions in NZ processing capacity and reducing flock size, lower production and export volumes are expected in the medium term, providing an opportunity for Australia to capitalise on typical NZ markets.

WAFarmers livestock president Geoff Pearson said WA producers could benefit even more than their Eastern States counterparts given the continually reducing flock levels.

“We’ve seen a demise of sheep flock, a decrease in producer confidence, our numbers aren’t there but number shortages will result in better prices,” he said.

“As supply and demand does its thing, we will see an increase price.”

Mr Pearson said there had never been a better time for Australian lamb and beef for fulfilling these markets given the international political unrest.

“NZ flock decline can only be a plus for Australia producers,” he said.

MLA market information analyst Emily Tansaid Australia would be able to capitalise on typical NZ markets if processors could effectively cater to both United States and United Kingdom markets and reward producers effectively.

The US market typically encourages carcasses 30kg and above, while the UK typically prefers lighter carcasses.

Sheepmeat exports in NZ fell 1.5 per cent to 399,803 tonnes carcass weight equivalent, a decline which Ms Tan said was expected to continue in 2025.

Meanwhile, in Australia a steady increase in lamb carcass weights has been recorded, driven by improvements in genetics, feeding strategies and evolving market signals.

“Australian carcass weights, for both sheep and lamb, have lifted by 19 per cent in the last 20 years,” Ms Tan said.

“The pursuit of heavier carcasses has led Australian lamb carcass weights to continue to grow.”

In NZ, carcass weights have remained stable in the past 10 years with processors discounting carcasses over 20kg because of the markets that they typically export to, including the UK.