For years, the Australian sheep industry has focused on one question — how big is the national sheep flock?

In my view, that’s not the question that will tell us where the market is heading.

The market doesn’t trade estimates.

It trades supply.

The numbers that matter are the ones we can measure.

Every week, sheep and lambs leave the production system through slaughter, live export and, in Western Australia, interstate transfers.

These are real, measurable figures that provide a far clearer picture of livestock availability than any estimated flock size.

Current supply indicators are telling a consistent story.

Sheep availability is tightening; fewer animals are moving through the production system and competition for available stock is strengthening.

Rather than debating how many sheep we think are in the paddock, perhaps we should be measuring how many are leaving it.

That’s why Agora Livestock is developing a rolling 12-month sheep supply monitor, bringing together slaughter, live export and interstate movement data into one practical indicator of market supply.

If we want to better understand where sheep markets are heading, we should spend less time discussing estimates and more time measuring what the market is trading.