Big banks leading the Australian sharemarket may be coming to an end, global asset managers warn, on the back of $30bn being wiped from Commonwealth Bank’s value on Wednesday.

On the back of surging prices over the past year, BHP’s share price has increased 57 per cent, and after the midweek bloodbath at CommBank, the miner is now the most valuable company on the ASX.

“We could be seeing the start of a regime shift,” VanEck investment head Russel Chesler said on Friday.

“We’re in a structurally different earnings environment to the one that delivered the last five years of bank performance. Australian investors may need to look beyond the big banks to capture the next phase of opportunity on the ASX.”

Another analyst says CBA’s teetering share price bears the hallmarks of major price corrections during the global financial crisis and between 2015 and the Covid pandemic-era low.

Releasing its 2026 Australian Equities Outlook, VanEck analysts say the conditions making the major banks the default trade for a generation of Australian investors – disinflation, falling rates, unbroken housing credit growth, and benign provisioning – have all “reversed” simultaneously.

Commonwealth Bank holds the largest slice of investor mortgages in Australia – about 26 per cent – and changes to capital gains tax discounts and negative gearing spooked shareholders.

The share price also tanked on Wednesday on the back of quarterly results despite the bank posting a $2.7bn profit, up 4 per cent. The fall is the largest single-day slide in the bank’s history.

The ASX financial sector has gained 2.25 per cent over the past year but shed 8.9 per cent in the past month.

On the back of record copper prices and steady iron ore prices, the ASX materials sector is up 50.2 per cent over the past 12 months.

China cutting rare earth exports, the copper market, and the global infrastructure cycle are all factors giving Australia’s mining sector a “durable tailwind”.

“Concentration risk in the major banks now cuts both ways,” Mr Chesler said.

“They have driven the index higher for years. They can drive it lower just as quickly.

“Investors should be mindful that CBA alone accounts for roughly 10 per cent of the S&P/ASX 200. When a single stock can move the benchmark by half a per cent on a single quarterly update, you are no longer running a diversified portfolio.”

The 2026 outlook from the New York-headquartered firm says the ASX could offer better returns than Wall Street for the rest of this year if global tensions ease.

“If geopolitical volatility subsides and the earnings recovery continues to broaden, Australia could be one of the better risk-adjusted equity trades globally in the second half of 2026,” Mr Chesler said.

“But that thesis only works if you own the right parts of the market. The bank-heavy passive trade is the most crowded and an expensive expression of Australian equities,

“The next phase of the ASX rally is unlikely to lift all boats. Investors will need to be more deliberate about where they take risk.”

Wealth Within analyst Filip Tortevski said when Commonwealth Bank shares fell 60 per cent during the GFC, and 44 per cent between 2015 and the pandemic, the stock experienced similar surges leading up to the falls as it is now.

“(The) biggest one-day drop in Commonwealth Bank of Australia history was blamed on the latest news release, but underneath the surface, something far more serious may be unfolding,” Mr Tortevski said.

“Since 2020, CBA’s price action has looked less like a traditional bank and more like a momentum-driven tech stock, with an aggressive surge higher that has become increasingly disconnected from the way the stock historically traded.”

Current patters resembled the 2008 crash and the pandemic-era low point, he said.

“That’s why this may not be just another temporary sell-off. It could be the first serious warning that CBA is entering its next major correction cycle. If history rhymes, a move back toward $95 cannot be ruled out, which would imply another potential 50 per cent decline from the highs.”

Shares are trading at $159.61 at 2pm on Friday.

“The question for investors now is simple: Was (Wednesday) just panic selling or the beginning of something much bigger?” Mr Tortevski said.