Record low birthrate, slowing migration to stall Australia’s population growth as country nears 28 million

Australia’s population will surpass a historic milestone over the next six months, even as the growth rate slumps to a historic low.

Fresh figures released by The Centre for Population shows Australia will reach 28 million people for the first time by June 30 this year.

But the rate of population growth is stalling to a record low of 1.3 per cent, down from 1.5 per cent last year.

Net overseas migration is expected to fall to 260,000 in 2026, which is less than half the number of arrivals during the 2022-2023 financial year when the borders reopened post covid.

The fall follows fewer temporary migrants, particularly on student and visitor visas issued so far in the financial year.

In 2024-2025 306,000 people migrated to Australia, slightly below a forecasted 310,000.

Centre for Population executive director Nick Latimer says forecasting net overseas migration has been challenging since the COVID 19 pandemic.

“Although some aspects of migration have begun to return to more usual patterns, significant uncertainty remains,” he said.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers wrote the government’s migration strategy is helping ensure the system works in the national interest.

“We’ve made a lot of progress in our economy in the past few years, including when it comes to building more homes, strengthening our migration settings, investing in skills and helping to ease the cost of living for Australians, but we recognise the job is far from over,” he said

“The Government will draw on the evidence and insights from the 2025 Population Statement to continue to build a better future for Australia.”

Also slowing Australia’s population is an expectation of a record low amount of new children being born.

Australia’s fertility rate will slump to a new record low of 1.42 children per woman.

The replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman, with Australia failing to reach this figure for almost 50 years.

Despite the current falls, the Centre for Population estimates the birthrate to recover slightly and be up to 1.62 children per woman by 2031-2032.

Mr Chalmers said Australia was not alone in a falling birthrate.

“The Government is rolling out policies to ease pressure on families and make it easier for people to have children if they want to, including by taking the next steps in building a universal early education and care system and expanding and enhancing paid parental leave,” he said.

Western Australia is expected to have the highest population growth over the year, up 1.8 per cent, while Tasmania is forecast to have the lowest at just 0.1 per cent.

Both Sydney and Melbourne will reach 8 million people by 2050.

Helping to offset a slowing birthrate is a longer life expectancy, with women expected to live until 87.1 while men to 83.4 from 2035-2036.

The median age of the country will also be slightly higher, up 1.8 years to 40.2, although this is around half the rate of ageing from the 1990s.

“Population ageing is one of the five major forces reshaping Australia’s economy,” Mr Chalmers said.

“Population ageing will continue to drive demand for health care services and aged care, placing greater pressure on the budget.

Despite the budget challenges, Mr Chalmers says Australia’s demographics will act as a source of resilience.

“By the mid 2060s, 80 per cent of OECD countries are projected to have declining working age populations, up from 40 per cent today. By contrast, Australia’s working age population will still be growing.”