House prices in areas more likely to vote One Nation are in fact holding steady or still rising despite a deep real estate downturn, new data shows.

These outer suburban areas, typically 50km from the city centre, are Labor at a State level, Liberal Federally and have either English or Australian as the most common ancestry, even after high levels of Asian immigration in most capital cities.

While prices are falling across Australia, the downturns are in fact less pronounced in these postcodes despite the Reserve Bank’s three interest rate rises this year and Labor’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions.

Despite being under financial stress, voters in these One Nation-leaning areas were less likely to have overborrowed compared with homeowners in more cosmopolitan, affluent suburbs, pollster Redbridge’s director of strategy Kos Samaras said.

“They were cheaper to get into to start off with — you see that right across the country; the outer suburban, peri-urban areas, house prices have not dropped as much as overpriced parts of our large cities,” he told The Nightly.

“These are usually land and house packages, most of these, so they weren’t coveted during the housing boom, and so people didn’t go and pay ridiculous amounts of money for them.”

Even if negative equity is less of a concern, where borrowers owe their bank more than their home is worth, many middle-aged and older voters in these areas saw One Nation leader Pauline Hanson as an outlet for their dislike of the political class.

“We find many of them, even in their sixties, still renting, still paying off the mortgage reporting to us extreme levels of financial stress,” Mr Samaras said.

“They wanted to upend the system — I think the political class make a mistake in assuming that people are voting for her because she’s offering anything; she’s offering a promise of one thing, to deprive power of political parties these people think put them in this place.”

Secret Harbour in Perth’s southern suburbs empathically voted for One Nation at Saturday’s State by-election with a massive 18.7 per cent swing recorded against the ruling Labor Party in what had previously been a safe seat in Western Australia on a double-digit margin.

The electorate, now represented by One Nation’s Luke Herdegen, overlaps with Coalition frontbencher Andrew Hastie’s Federal Liberal-held seat of Canning and is home to beachside suburbs 60km south of Perth’s city centre.

In the three months to August 31, Secret Harbour’s mid-point house price rose by 0.5 per cent to $1.069 million as greater Perth’s median house price has plunged by 3 per cent to $1.043m, Cotality data showed.

In nearby Golden Bay, house prices during the same period remained steady at $934,826 as values at Madora Bay at the southern fringe of the Secret Harbour electorate in fact rose by 2 per cent to $965,043.

The story is remarkably similar on the other side of Australia in suburbs that fall within a safe State Labor seat and overlap with a Federal Liberal electorate.

Like Secret Harbour, Greenbank 43km south-west of Brisbane had English as the top ancestry in the 2021 Census.

It falls within the safe Queensland State Labor electorate of Jordan, where One Nation in 2017 finished second ahead of the Liberal National Party Opposition.

This area of Logan council also falls within the Federal Liberal electorate of Wright.

Greenbank’s mid-point house price held steady at $1.156m during the past three months while at neighbouring New Beith house prices fell by just 0.3 per cent to $1.44m.

This occurred as greater Brisbane’s median house price fell 2.9 per cent over the quarter to $1.181m.

An hour’s drive away on the northern outskirts of the Gold Coast, Pacific Pines house prices have fallen by 0.7 per cent during the past three months to $1.247m.

This suburb falls within the Labor State seat of Gaven which overlaps with the Federal Liberal seat of Fadden, and also had English as the top ancestry in the last published Census.

In Sydney’s west, house prices at Penrith during the past three months have plunged by 5 per cent to $1.077m.

This occurred as greater Sydney house prices fell by 5.4 per cent to $1.495m during the quarter.

Labor holds the NSW State seat of Penrith which overlaps with the Liberal-held Federal seat of Lindsay.

The suburb of Penrith — 58km from the city — has Australian and English as the most common ancestries.

In outer Melbourne, Packenham house prices have fallen by 2.2 per cent over three months to $748,034 as greater Melbourne’s mid-point house price dived by 4.6 per cent to $920,432.

This suburb falls within the Labor Victorian State seat of Packenham, which overlaps with the Federal seat of La Trobe and has English as the top ancestry.

The phenomenon of Labor seats overlapping with a Federal Coalition seat can also be seen in regional areas.

Gladstone in central Queensland is a safe Labor seat at a State level that falls within the Nationals electorate of Flynn, that are also regarded as potential One Nation gains.

“I reckon in both seats, Federal and State, they’ll pick ‘em up and also it’s Queensland — that’s ground zero for One Nation,” Ms Samaras said.

“Anything outside Brisbane is up for grabs.”

House prices at West Gladstone have in fact risen by 2.2 per cent during the past three months to $532,000 in a suburb where Australian is the most common ancestry.